A Forecasting Platform Participant Made $Nearly Half a Million on Wagers Predicting Maduro's Downfall.
An individual profited close to $500,000 on the ouster of Venezuela's president shortly prior to it was made public, sparking debate about whether someone profited from confidential information of the US operation.
Changing Odds in Wagers
Bets placed on the crypto-platform, a blockchain-based service, that the leader would be removed from office by the end of January surged in the hours before former President Trump stated on Saturday that the Venezuelan leader had been seized.
One account, which became a member last month and took four positions, all on political events in Venezuela, earned over $436K from a initial bet of over $32,000.
Who placed the bet is a mystery. The anonymous account had only a blockchain identifier for identification.
Market Signals Before Public Statement
Market statistics shows that users put the odds of a political change at just under 7% in the afternoon of the Friday before the event.
However these probabilities had increased to 11% by late Friday night and spiked dramatically in the morning of January 3rd, pointing to a rapid movement in market sentiment immediately prior to the social media post was made.
"This specific wager has all the characteristics of a bet based on non-public details," commented an industry expert.
A handful of other individuals also made tens of thousands of dollars from similar wagers.
Regulatory Scrutiny Emerges
Elected officials are growing concerned.
A bill introduced on the start of the week aims to prohibit government employees from participating on prediction markets if they have "insider details" related to a market.
Market Background
Event-driven betting sites have surged in popularity in the United States, with participants able to predict everything from elections to politics.
This sector faced scrutiny under the last presidential term. However it has experienced less resistance during the Trump presidency.
Insider trading is against the law in the traditional financial markets, but there are less oversight in the forecasting arena.
A spokesperson for another major platform said their site "explicitly prohibits such activities of any form."